Plastic Card Fraud Detection

28 March 2007, 2-5pm
The Royal Statistical Society
12 Errol Street
London, UK

This is a half-day meeting of the Statistical Computing Section of the Royal Statistical Society.


Speakers

Alex Boothroyd,Visa Business School
"The role of Fraud Detection in the Payment Cards Business"

John Oxley, Experian
"Credit Card Transaction Fraud: Modelling Methodology for Small/Medium European Issuers and Processors "

David Weston, Imperial College London
"Plastic Card Fraud Detection using Peer Group Analysis"


Registration

Pre-registration is recommended. You can register by email:
meetings@rss.org.uk or by phone (020) 7638 8998. The meeting is free and open to all.
Information about getting to Errol Street is available here.
For further information, contact Niall Adams.

Abstracts


Alex Boothroyd

The fight against fraud is a constantly-evolving activity across all facets of the financial services industry.
As new fraud prevention technologies are developed and implemented, so the fraudsters will simultaneously be developing ever more sophisticated methods of gaining access to other peoples' money.
This presentation addresses the fundamentals of fraud detection in the payment cards arena:


Credit Card Transaction Fraud: Modelling Methodology for Small/Medium European Issuers and Processors


John Oxley

In recent years, the plastic card industry has invested heavily in fraud prevention measures. Chip and PIN technology has had a demonstrable effect on the incidence of credit card fraud in the countries where it has been introduced. However, while Lost/Stolen and Counterfeit fraud have decreased significantly, fraudsters are versatile and technologically advanced and have simply moved their focus to other channels, for example, where Chip and PIN provide no protection - mail order, telephone order, internet transactions: Card Not Present in general. Given that complete fraud prevention is, currently, not feasible there remains a need for detection systems. In the US, the huge credit card market generally requires and expects sophisticated systems for scoring large volumes of transactions in real time. However, smaller European issuers and card processors have a need for solutions that are no less effective but smaller in scale and less expensive. We present a methodology for building predictive transaction fraud models that attempts to fit this requirement, combining robust regression techniques with next generation neural network technology. The talk covers areas from Sample Requirements and Data preparation to Monitoring and Optimisation and suggests appropriate performance measures.


Plastic Card Fraud Detection using Peer Group Analysis


David Weston

Peer group analysis is an unsupervised method for monitoring behaviour over time. For each credit card account a 'Peer Group' of accounts is determined; These are accounts that exhibit similar behaviour. As time evolves, it is assumed the behaviour of an account is tracked by those accounts in its Peer Group. An account whose subsequent behaviour deviates strongly from its Peer Group is considered to have behaved anomalously and is flagged as potentially fraudulent. Since it is unlikely that an account will be tracked indefinitely by its Peer Group, we investigate how tightly accounts are tracked by peer groups. The real-time practical issues of both summarizing the behaviour of an account and comparing accounts are also described.