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DynamIC Seminars
(
Complete List
)
Name
Title
Date
Time
Room
Matthew Nicol (University of Houston)
TBD
Abstract:
TBD
Tuesday, 10 March 2026
13:00
HXLY 145
Stefan Ruschel (University of Nottingham)
TBD
Abstract:
TBD
Tuesday, 17 March 2026
13:00
HXLY 145
Larissa Serdukova (University of Leicester)
Metastability in Climate Models: From Escape Probabilities to Geometric Early Warning Indicators
Abstract:
Abrupt transitions between competing climate states often arise from noise-induced metastability rather than deterministic bifurcations. This talk presents theoretical tools for analyzing such transitions in stochastic dynamical systems. We first discuss the Stochastic Basin of Attraction (SBA) framework, where stability is quantified via escape probabilities solving generator-based boundary value problems, with extensions to Lévy-driven systems. We then introduce a recently developed geometric early warning indicator derived from the stochastic separatrix defined by the committor function in a bistable temperature–phytoplankton model. In the weak-noise limit, we demonstrate an explicit affine relation between the logarithm of the mean first passage time and the inverse square of the geometric indicator, revealing a fundamental geometric–temporal coupling. Applications to Arctic under-ice blooms and the Ghil–Sellers energy balance model highlight how these tools provide mechanistic insight into tipping phenomena under stochastic forcing.
Tuesday, 24 March 2026
13:00
HXLY 145
DynamIC Workshops and Mini-Courses
(
Complete List
)
Title
Date
Venue
One-day workshop on Random Dynamical Systems and Ergodic Theory
Tuesday, 9 September 2025
HXLY 340, Imperial College London
CHAOS (Homoclinic Bifurcations, Strange Attractors, Arnold Diffusion, Fermi Acceleration, Solitons)
Sunday, 24 September 2023 – Friday, 29 September 2023
Nesin Math Village, Izmir, Turkey
Short-term DynamIC Visitors
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